Caroline Dubois has spent months pursuing Alycia Baumgardner.
She has called for the fight, exchanged words with her rival and made it increasingly clear that Baumgardner is one of the biggest names she wants next.
Now, somewhat strangely, Dubois finds herself wanting Baumgardner to succeed.
Ahead of Alycia Baumgardner vs Elif Nur Turhan on 8 November, Dubois has backed the American to make relatively easy work of the reigning IBF lightweight champion.
On the surface, it is simply one fighter giving her prediction.
Look a little deeper, however, and Dubois has plenty invested in the outcome.
Because if Baumgardner beats Turhan and adds the IBF lightweight world title to her collection, the fight Dubois has been pursuing suddenly becomes considerably bigger.
Sometimes in boxing, the rival you want to beat most is also the rival you need to keep winning.
Dubois Expects Baumgardner to Make It Look Easy
There is no mystery about who Dubois expects to win Alycia Baumgardner vs Elif Nur Turhan.
Speaking to The Ring, Dubois said Baumgardner should be able to “make it look easy” against the Turkish champion.
That is a confident prediction considering exactly what Baumgardner is walking into.
Turhan is unbeaten at 14-0 with eight stoppages and holds the IBF lightweight world title. She announced herself at the highest level by stopping Olympic gold medallist Beatriz Ferreira in five rounds to win the belt.
Baumgardner, meanwhile, is moving from super-featherweight to lightweight and challenging immediately for a world championship.
This is not supposed to be a comfortable introduction to 135lbs.
Yet Dubois clearly believes Baumgardner’s boxing ability should be enough to deal with Turhan.
Perhaps more importantly, that is exactly what Dubois needs to happen.
Caroline Dubois Has Something to Gain
Dubois currently holds the WBC and WBO lightweight world titles, while Turhan possesses the IBF belt.
That makes Alycia Baumgardner vs Elif Nur Turhan directly relevant to Dubois’s ambition of becoming undisputed lightweight champion.
If Turhan wins, Dubois can still pursue the IBF title.
But if Baumgardner wins?
Suddenly the championship picture becomes far more interesting.
Baumgardner would arrive at lightweight carrying the IBF title alongside her existing profile and accomplishments at super-featherweight.
Dubois would bring the WBC and WBO belts.
The personal rivalry already exists.
And the pair have already confronted each other publicly.
As I have previously written on CMBoxing, the build-up to a potential Caroline Dubois vs Alycia Baumgardner fight has increasingly moved beyond two champions simply wanting each other’s belts:
Baumgardner winning in November would add another world championship to that rivalry.
That is why Dubois has every reason to hope her prediction is correct.
Boxing’s Strangest Kind of Business Partnership
This is where boxing becomes fascinating.
Dubois does not have to like Baumgardner.
She certainly does not have to want her rival to dominate the lightweight division.
But right now, Baumgardner succeeding is potentially good business for Caroline Dubois.
Every victory keeps the rivalry alive.
Every impressive performance increases interest in their eventual meeting.
Every belt makes the potential fight more significant.
It creates one of boxing’s strangest relationships.
Your biggest rival can simultaneously become one of your most valuable business partners.
Neither fighter needs to sign a contract together for that relationship to exist. They simply need to continue winning.
Think about how many major boxing rivalries have depended on exactly that.
Two fighters spend months or sometimes years moving towards each other, but the entire thing only works while both keep winning.
One unexpected defeat can change everything.
Dubois may desperately want to be the fighter who beats Baumgardner.
That means she needs everyone else to fail first.
But Should Dubois Be Careful What She Wishes For?
There is another side to this.
Suppose Dubois is completely correct.
Suppose Alycia Baumgardner vs Elif Nur Turhan ends with Baumgardner producing exactly the type of performance Dubois predicts.
She moves up to lightweight, handles a naturally bigger opponent and takes the IBF world championship without much difficulty.
That certainly makes Dubois vs Baumgardner bigger.
It also potentially makes Baumgardner considerably more dangerous.
Moving between divisions is always one of the unknowns in boxing. A fighter can look outstanding at one weight and discover that their physical advantages disappear when they move up.
Baumgardner has been competing at 130lbs.
Turhan is an established lightweight.
If Baumgardner can move to 135lbs and immediately look comfortable against a powerful world champion, Dubois will have learned something important about the opponent she has spent months pursuing.
Baumgardner’s ability travels with her.
That would not be a reason for Dubois to suddenly stop wanting the fight.
Quite the opposite.
But there is a difference between wanting a rival to win and wanting them to look spectacular doing it.
Turhan Cannot Become an Afterthought
There is also a danger in looking beyond Turhan.
Boxing has punished fighters for doing that countless times.
The discussion surrounding Alycia Baumgardner vs Elif Nur Turhan has inevitably become connected to what could happen afterwards.
Could Baumgardner fight Dubois?
Could the lightweight belts eventually be consolidated?
Could Baumgardner become undisputed in another division?
All perfectly reasonable questions.
But Turhan is not simply holding a championship belt until Baumgardner arrives to collect it.
She is an unbeaten world champion with genuine punching power.
Stopping Ferreira was particularly significant. Ferreira arrived in professional boxing with an Olympic gold medal and considerable expectations, but Turhan overwhelmed her to claim the IBF title.
That should be enough to prevent anyone treating November as merely the first half of a two-fight plan.
Dubois may believe Baumgardner makes it look easy.
Baumgardner still has to prove her right.
The Biggest Fight Needs Both Women to Keep Winning
For all the insults, confrontation and genuine competitive tension surrounding Dubois and Baumgardner, their interests are temporarily aligned.
Dubois needs Baumgardner.
Baumgardner may ultimately need Dubois too.
Women’s boxing has increasingly shown that undisputed championship fights become significantly more valuable when there is a genuine rivalry attached to them.
Belts provide sporting importance.
Personalities provide interest.
Dubois and Baumgardner potentially have both.
But only if they keep winning.
That is why Alycia Baumgardner vs Elif Nur Turhan matters beyond the IBF lightweight world championship itself.
A Turhan victory would not destroy Dubois’s undisputed ambitions. If anything, it would leave another champion available for her to target.
What it could destroy is the momentum behind potentially the biggest fight available to her.
And that is something a world title alone cannot replace.
Dubois Might Need Her Rival More Than She Realises
There is something wonderfully contradictory about boxing rivals secretly needing each other to succeed.
Dubois wants Baumgardner’s belt.
She wants her name on her record.
And judging by everything we have seen between them, she would probably enjoy proving Baumgardner wrong almost as much as becoming undisputed.
But before any of that can happen, Baumgardner has another job to do.
Dubois believes she will make easy work of it.
She should probably hope she is right.
Just perhaps not too right.
Because if Baumgardner walks through a dangerous lightweight champion and looks even better at 135lbs than she did at 130lbs, Dubois might get exactly what she has spent months asking for.
A bigger fight.
More belts.
More attention.
And an even more dangerous Alycia Baumgardner standing in the opposite corner.
What Do You Think?
Does Alycia Baumgardner beat Elif Nur Turhan as comfortably as Caroline Dubois expects, or is everyone looking too far ahead and underestimating the IBF lightweight champion?
And if Baumgardner wins impressively, does that make a showdown with Dubois even more compelling?
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